AfD leads as Merz rues ‘disaster’ in worst state election result in postwar Germany
AfD Leads as Merz Rues State Election Disaster
Bdbusinessdaily.com – AfD leads as Merz rues disaster after Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany emerged as the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The result increased pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz after his conservative bloc posted its weakest state-election performance in postwar Germany.
Projections released after Sunday’s vote put the AfD on 38.3%, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats on 35.4%. Merz’s conservatives fell to 4.9%, below the threshold normally needed to enter the state parliament.
The outcome could leave the conservatives without representation in the regional legislature. Merz called the initial result a disaster but signalled that he planned to remain in office and continue his federal reform programme.
“It’s a disaster,” Merz said after the exit polls were released.
AfD records another state-election first place
AfD leads as Merz rues the setback in what was the party’s second first-place finish in a state election that month. The AfD is also leading national opinion polls, though Germany’s established parties continue to rule out coalition governments with it.
The party’s support has risen especially sharply in eastern Germany. In Saxony-Anhalt, where voting took place on 6 September, the AfD came close to winning an outright majority, a rare result in Germany’s fragmented multi-party system.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the former communist east, illustrates the challenge for mainstream parties. Their political “firewall” against the AfD rejects formal cooperation and coalition agreements, yet the party has continued to expand its support.
The AfD supports tougher deportation measures for people without the right to remain in Germany, renewed energy ties with Russia and an end to German participation in the euro. In little more than a decade, it has moved from the political margins to the top of national polling.
Berlin result adds to conservative pressure
The Berlin vote on the same day delivered another difficult result for Merz’s party. The far-left Linke party was projected to win 25.3%, while the conservatives slipped to 19%. The AfD increased its share in the capital to 16.3%, despite Berlin’s more liberal reputation.
It was the first time Linke had led polling in the state. The party has campaigned for extensive intervention in the housing market, including limits on rents and the nationalisation of homes owned by corporate landlords.
Merz’s conservatives govern Berlin with the Social Democrats. Their falling support has raised doubts about the strength of mainstream coalitions, while frustration among voters appears to be benefiting parties on both ends of the political spectrum.
Reform agenda faces a tougher political climate
AfD leads as Merz rues a result that may make his federal agenda harder to advance. Merz entered office last year promising reforms to revive growth in Europe’s largest economy, but weak approval ratings, unpopular measures and communication errors have limited public support.
Marcel Fratzscher, president of Berlin’s DIW research institute, said the state-election results could make decisive action by the federal government even more difficult.
“It will now become even more difficult for the federal government to muster the courage and political support for a fundamental reform programme,” Fratzscher said.
He warned that continued political red lines could leave Germany trapped in inactivity, prolong economic weakness and increase the possibility of an AfD victory in the 2029 federal election.
Manuela Schwesig, the SPD premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, improved her party’s position before the election by criticising both the AfD and Merz’s reforms. Her campaign reflected local concerns about German support for Ukraine and the prospect of energy supplies returning through Nord Stream.
“First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military,” Schwesig said. “And a second point: Many people also wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again.”
Schwesig had previously backed the Nord Stream pipelines, which carried Russian gas through her Baltic Sea state into Germany before being destroyed in 2022, though she later changed her position.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania result mean? The AfD’s first-place finish and the conservative bloc’s 4.9% result could reshape the state parliament and intensify pressure on Germany’s federal government.
Why is the 5% threshold important in Germany? In many German elections, parties generally need at least 5% of the vote to win seats through proportional representation. Falling below that level can leave a party without representation in parliament.
Will Germany’s mainstream parties form a coalition with the AfD? Germany’s established parties have maintained a political firewall against the AfD and have continued to reject governing coalitions with it.
Why are Nord Stream and Ukraine important issues in the state? Local debate has included concerns about the cost of energy, the return of Russian gas supplies and Germany’s financial and military support for Ukraine.