Bangladesh to see lowest GDP growth in South Asia, after Afghanistan: WB
World Bank Cuts Bangladesh Growth Outlook to 3.4% for FY27
Bdbusinessdaily.com – Bangladesh is projected to record GDP growth of 3.4% in FY27, placing it near the bottom of South Asia’s growth table and ahead only of Afghanistan, the World Bank said in its latest regional economic assessment released on 6 October.
The new forecast represents a reduction of 1.2 percentage points from the World Bank’s earlier projection for Bangladesh. The downgrade stands out against an otherwise resilient outlook for South Asia, where growth is expected to strengthen despite pressure from high energy costs and an uncertain global environment.
The World Bank expects South Asian growth to reach 6.9% in 2026 before easing slightly to a still-strong 6.7% in 2027. The institution identified consumption and investment as the main forces helping the region maintain its position as the world’s fastest-growing regional economy.
“Despite these unfavourable forces, South Asia remains the fastest-growing region due to strong momentum in consumption and investment,” the report said.
Bangladesh trails regional peers
With growth forecast at 3.4% in FY27, Bangladesh is expected to expand more slowly than most of its South Asian neighbours. The figure underscores the contrast between the country’s outlook and the broader regional momentum described in the World Bank’s South Asia Economic Update.
For readers, GDP growth measures the pace at which an economy’s total output of goods and services rises over time. A weaker growth forecast does not describe every household or business experience, but it signals a slower overall expansion in economic activity than previously expected.
The regional report covers Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan and Pakistan are assessed separately in the World Bank’s Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update, which was also released on 6 October.
Bangladesh’s forecast places it only marginally above Afghanistan, where growth is projected at 3.3% in FY27. Pakistan is expected to grow by 3.8% during the same fiscal year, while Nepal’s economy is forecast to expand by 3.7%.
India and Bhutan lead the outlook
India is expected to remain the largest driver of regional growth, with the World Bank projecting expansion of more than 7% in FY27. Strong domestic demand and export performance are expected to support the Indian economy even as global conditions remain challenging.
The World Bank described India as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally and highlighted its importance to worldwide economic growth. Its scale means that sustained growth in India has a significant influence on South Asia’s overall performance.
Bhutan is forecast to become South Asia’s second-fastest-growing economy in FY27, with GDP growth of 6.7%. The gap between Bhutan’s projected performance and Bangladesh’s 3.4% forecast illustrates the uneven pace of recovery and expansion across the region.
Sri Lanka’s economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2027. However, the World Bank warned that the country’s recovery remains incomplete and uneven. While broader economic indicators may be improving, household incomes and labour-market conditions have yet to fully catch up.
Mixed conditions across neighbouring economies
In the Maldives, GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2026, with tourism proving more resilient than earlier expectations. Its 2027 growth estimate has nevertheless been lowered sharply, falling by 3.1 percentage points to 4.1%.
The reduced Maldives forecast reflects a more cautious view of the country’s medium-term growth potential. The revision shows that resilience in one major sector can help an economy in the near term while longer-term structural constraints continue to affect expectations.
Pakistan’s growth is expected to remain broadly steady at 3.8% in FY27. High commodity and energy prices are likely to continue weighing on services and industry, limiting the scope for a stronger acceleration.
Nepal’s economy is forecast to slow to 3.7% in FY27. Flood-related damage to energy infrastructure is expected to affect industrial activity, while disruption to trade, transport and tourism is set to constrain the services sector. The outlook demonstrates how damage to infrastructure can spread through multiple parts of an economy.
Regional resilience faces continuing pressure
South Asia’s projected growth remains notable because the region is expected to stay relatively strong despite elevated energy prices. Higher energy costs can increase expenses for businesses, transport, industry and households, creating pressure across economies that depend heavily on imported fuel or energy-intensive production.
The World Bank’s outlook suggests that consumer spending and investment have continued to provide important support across the region. Consumption reflects demand from households, while investment can include spending on factories, equipment, infrastructure and other capacity-building activities. Both are central to sustaining economic expansion over time.
For Bangladesh, the revised FY27 figure will draw attention because it places the country below the growth rates projected for India, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Nepal. The forecast also highlights that South Asia’s positive regional average does not mean each economy is moving at the same speed.
As the region heads toward 2027, the World Bank expects South Asia to retain a strong growth profile. Yet the sharply different projections for individual countries point to the importance of domestic conditions, energy costs, infrastructure resilience, export performance and demand in determining how much each economy benefits from the wider regional momentum.
Related Reading
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bangladesh to see lowest GDP growth?Bangladesh to see lowest GDP growth is the main topic of this guide. The article explains the context, practical details, and next steps readers should understand.
Why does Bangladesh to see lowest GDP growth matter?Bangladesh to see lowest GDP growth matters because readers are looking for a useful answer, not just a short summary. Good content should match search intent and help them decide what to do next.